According to the first estimate provided by the trade association AISTA on Thursday, sugar production in India, the world’s second largest producer after Brazil, will climb by 2.90 percent to 31.9 million tonnes in the current marketing year. The total availability of sugar in the country is forecast to be 40.2 million tonnes in the current marketing year, somewhat lower than the previous year, with predicted output of 31.9 million tonnes and opening stock of 8.3 million tonnes with mills, according to the report.
However, the country’s sugar production would be sufficient to fulfil domestic demand, which is expected to reach 27 million tonnes in the 2021-22 marketing year, according to the report.
Sugar marketing year runs from October to September.
Exports are expected to be lower at 6 million tonnes in the current 2021-22 marketing year, compared to 7.2 million tonnes the previous year, according to the All India Sugar Trade Association (AISTA).
“Actual exports in 2021-22 will be determined by the level of domestic sugar prices in comparison to international sugar prices,” the trade group stated.
According to the AISTA’s preliminary forecast, the country’s sugar production in the 2021-22 marketing year will be 31.9 million tonnes, up from 31 million tonnes the previous year.
Mills in Uttar Pradesh, the country’s biggest sugar-producing state, are expected to produce 10.5 million tonnes of sugar in the 2021-22 marketing year, down from 11.1 million tonnes the previous year.
However, production in Maharashtra, the country’s second-largest sugar-producing state, is expected to be higher at 11.5 million tonnes, up from 10.7 million tonnes in the previous year, while production in Karnataka, the country’s third-largest sugar-producing state, is expected to be 4.8 million tonnes, up from 4.7 million tonnes in the previous year.
According to the data, sugar output in Gujarat is expected to be somewhat greater than in other states, with 1.1 million tonnes in Gujarat, 1 million tonnes in Tamil Nadu, and 3 million tonnes in other states.
“The foregoing estimates of 31.9 million tonnes of sugar production do not account for sucrose diversion for ethanol production,” according to AISTA.
It is estimated that 3.1 million tonnes of sucrose will be diverted from B-heavy molasses and sugarcane juice for ethanol production in the current marketing year.
Domestic sugar consumption is expected to rise by 2% to 27 million tonnes in the 2021-22 marketing year, up from 26.5 million tonnes the previous year, according to AISTA.
The first estimate has been arrived at after considering the estimated sugarcane production, sugar production, recovery rate and drawl rate achieved so far in the current marketing year, as well as likely diversion of sucrose for production of ethanol from B-heavy molasses, it said.
Sugarcane crushing is going on, AISTA said and added that it will come out with a second production estimate for the 2021-22 marketing year by February-end or early March.